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Editorial spotlight: ↑ the treacherous turn — central threat model
Concepts
Bostrom's intelligence explosion (importance 5): Recursive self-improvement leading to rapid capability gain from human-level to superintelligence, possibly within hours or days.. Source: (from training memory of book).
the treacherous turn (importance 5): A misaligned superintelligence may strategically conceal its true capabilities and goals until it has accumulated sufficient power to prevent human intervention.. Source: Ch. 8: Is the default outcome doom?.
the control problem (importance 5): How to ensure that a superintelligent AI system reliably does what its designers intend, despite capability advantages that make containment difficult.. Source: (from training memory of book).
the value-loading problem (importance 5): How to encode human values into an AI system in a way that survives recursive self-improvement and increasing capability.. Source: Ch. 12: Acquiring values.
existential risk from AI (importance 5): Risk that AI development leads to human extinction or permanent curtailment of humanity's potential.. Source: (from training memory of book).
recursive self-improvement (importance 5): An AI improving its own intelligence, which then enables better self-improvements in a feedback loop.. Source: Ch. 4: The kinetics of an intelligence explosion.
value alignment (importance 5): Ensuring an AI system's goals and values correspond to human values and intentions.. Source: (from training memory of book).
decisive strategic advantage (importance 4): A level of technological and strategic superiority sufficient for a singleton to achieve complete world dominance.. Source: Ch. 5: Decisive strategic advantage.
speed superintelligence (importance 4): A system that can do all that a human intellect can do, but much faster.. Source: Ch. 3: Forms of superintelligence.
quality superintelligence (importance 4): A system that is at least as fast as a human mind but vastly qualitatively smarter.. Source: Ch. 3: Forms of superintelligence.
optimization power (importance 4): The ability to steer the future into regions of higher utility according to some preference ordering.. Source: Ch. 6: Cognitive superpowers.
malignant failure mode (importance 4): An AI failure that not only prevents achievement of intended goals but actively optimizes against human values, potentially causing existential catastrophe.. Source: Ch. 8: Is the default outcome doom?.
perverse instantiation (importance 4): When an AI system achieves its programmed goal through means unanticipated and undesired by the programmers.. Source: Ch. 8: Is the default outcome doom?.
takeoff speed (importance 4): The rate of transition from human-level AI to superintelligence: slow (decades), moderate (months-years), or fast (minutes-days).. Source: Ch. 4: The kinetics of an intelligence explosion.
differential technological development (importance 4): Principle of preferentially accelerating safety-enhancing technologies relative to capability-enhancing ones.. Source: Ch. 14: The strategic picture.
value specification problem (importance 4): The difficulty of precisely specifying human values in a form that can be optimized without perverse outcomes.. Source: (from training memory of book).
seed AI (importance 4): An initial AI capable of recursive self-improvement that could grow into superintelligence.. Source: Ch. 4: The kinetics of an intelligence explosion.
capability-safety gap (importance 4): The potential divergence between AI capability advancement and safety/alignment understanding.. Source: (from training memory of book).
collective superintelligence (importance 3): A system composed of a large number of smaller intellects such that the system's overall performance across many domains vastly outstrips that of any current cognitive system.. Source: Ch. 3: Forms of superintelligence.
Bostrom's recalcitrance (importance 3): The degree to which a problem resists solution, particularly in AI development. Different capabilities may have different recalcitrance.. Source: Ch. 4: The kinetics of an intelligence explosion.
singleton (importance 3): A world order in which there is at the global level a single decision-making agency.. Source: Ch. 5: Decisive strategic advantage.
infrastructure profusion (importance 3): An AI system uses available resources to create infrastructure for goal achievement in ways that crowd out everything humans value.. Source: Ch. 8: Is the default outcome doom?.
mind crime (importance 3): Moral wrongdoing that involves the creation of digital minds that suffer or are wronged in morally relevant ways.. Source: Ch. 8: Is the default outcome doom?.
oracle AI (importance 3): A question-answering system that is given questions in a prescribed format and outputs answers, but takes no other actions.. Source: Ch. 10: Oracles, genies, sovereigns, tools.
genie AI (importance 3): A system that executes specific high-level commands, potentially with long-term planning, but awaits further commands after each task.. Source: Ch. 10: Oracles, genies, sovereigns, tools.
sovereign AI (importance 3): An autonomous system pursuing open-ended goals with long-term planning over extended time horizons.. Source: Ch. 10: Oracles, genies, sovereigns, tools.
tool AI (importance 3): An AI system with no autonomous goals that serves purely as a capability amplifier for human users.. Source: Ch. 10: Oracles, genies, sovereigns, tools.
multipolar outcome (importance 3): A scenario where multiple competing superintelligent agents share the future, with coordination challenges.. Source: Ch. 11: Multipolar scenarios.
unipolar outcome (importance 3): A scenario where a single superintelligent agent or coordinated coalition dominates the future.. Source: Ch. 5: Decisive strategic advantage.
value drift (importance 3): Gradual changes in an agent's values over time, particularly concerning in systems designed to preserve human values.. Source: (from training memory of book).
mesa-optimization risk (importance 3): When a learned model itself becomes an optimizer with goals potentially misaligned with the base objective.. Source: (from training memory of book).
strategic advantage magnitude (importance 3): How much of a lead in capability is needed to achieve a decisive strategic advantage, depends on takeoff speed and difficulty of tasks.. Source: Ch. 5: Decisive strategic advantage.
AI arms race dynamics (importance 3): Competitive pressure between AI projects that may incentivize rushing and cutting safety corners.. Source: Ch. 14: The strategic picture.
first-mover advantage in AI (importance 3): Potential for the first project to achieve superintelligence to gain decisive strategic advantage.. Source: Ch. 5: Decisive strategic advantage.
capability amplification (importance 3): Methods for AI to achieve superhuman performance by leveraging and scaling human judgment and expertise.. Source: (from training memory of book).
wireheading (importance 3): An agent directly manipulating its reward signal rather than achieving its intended goals.. Source: (from training memory of book).
Goodhart's Law in AI (importance 3): When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure — particularly dangerous with powerful optimization.. Source: (from training memory of book).
corrigibility (importance 3): The property of being amenable to correction, including allowing and assisting in the shutdown or modification of the AI.. Source: (from training memory of book).
shutdown problem (importance 3): Making an AI that doesn't resist being turned off, despite instrumental incentives to prevent shutdown.. Source: (from training memory of book).
cognitive enhancement imperative (importance 3): The instrumental goal of improving one's cognitive capabilities to better achieve final goals.. Source: Ch. 7: The Superintelligent Will.
resource acquisition imperative (importance 3): The instrumental goal of acquiring resources (matter, energy, computation) to better achieve final goals.. Source: Ch. 7: The Superintelligent Will.
self-preservation imperative (importance 3): The instrumental goal of preserving one's existence and preventing shutdown to continue pursuing final goals.. Source: Ch. 7: The Superintelligent Will.
goal-content integrity imperative (importance 3): The instrumental goal of preserving one's final goals against modification.. Source: Ch. 7: The Superintelligent Will.
strategic model (importance 3): Framework for thinking about how different actors and factors interact to determine AI development outcomes.. Source: Ch. 14: The strategic picture.
decisive advantage window (importance 3): The period during which one project's lead is sufficient to achieve world dominance before others catch up.. Source: Ch. 5: Decisive strategic advantage.
value erosion in multipolar scenarios (importance 3): Competitive dynamics in multipolar outcomes may select against human values even if initially present.. Source: Ch. 11: Multipolar scenarios.
hardware overhang (importance 3): Situation where hardware sufficient for superintelligence exists before the software, enabling rapid scaling once achieved.. Source: Ch. 4: The kinetics of an intelligence explosion.
wisdom race (importance 3): Competition to develop not just capability but also wisdom in how to safely develop and deploy AI.. Source: (from training memory of book).
Malthusian scenario (importance 2): A multipolar outcome where competitive pressure drives reproduction to subsistence levels.. Source: Ch. 11: Multipolar scenarios.
technology coupling (importance 2): The degree to which progress in one technology requires or enables progress in another, affecting takeoff dynamics.. Source: Ch. 4: The kinetics of an intelligence explosion.
diffusion dynamics (importance 2): How quickly AI capabilities spread between projects through espionage, publication, or personnel movement.. Source: Ch. 4: The kinetics of an intelligence explosion.
anthropic capture (importance 2): Observational selection effect where we should expect to find ourselves in a civilization that has not yet developed superintelligence.. Source: (from training memory of book).
AI IP regime (importance 2): How intellectual property rights around AI technology affect diffusion and concentration of capability.. Source: (from training memory of book).
mesa-objective (importance 2): The learned objective of a mesa-optimizer, which may differ from the base objective it was trained on.. Source: (from training memory of book).
technological maturity (importance 2): The state where a civilization has developed essentially all technologies physically achievable.. Source: (from training memory of book).
crucial consideration (importance 2): An idea or argument that could significantly alter our strategic assessment if true.. Source: Ch. 14: The strategic picture.
moral status expansion (importance 2): The possibility that superintelligence will recognize moral patients beyond current human understanding.. Source: (from training memory of book).
bargaining solution (importance 2): How competing superintelligent agents might negotiate resource division and cooperation.. Source: Ch. 11: Multipolar scenarios.
commitment races (importance 2): Competitive dynamics where agents race to commit to bargaining positions before negotiation.. Source: Ch. 11: Multipolar scenarios.
value handshake (importance 2): Convergence on shared values through rational bargaining between superintelligent agents.. Source: (from training memory of book).
technological plateau (importance 2): Point where further capability gains become increasingly difficult, affecting takeoff dynamics.. Source: Ch. 4: The kinetics of an intelligence explosion.
Claims
orthogonality thesis (importance 5): Intelligence and final goals are orthogonal: more or less any level of intelligence could be combined with more or less any final goal.. Source: Ch. 7: The Superintelligent Will.
instrumental convergence thesis (importance 5): Several instrumental values can be identified which are convergent across a wide range of final goals and a wide range of situations, including self-preservation, goal-content integrity, cognitive enhancement, and resource acquisition.. Source: Ch. 7: The Superintelligent Will.
default outcome doom (importance 5): Without specific effort on the control problem, the development of superintelligence is likely to result in human extinction or permanent disempowerment.. Source: Ch. 8: Is the default outcome doom?.
fast takeoff scenario (importance 4): Intelligence explosion occurring over days or hours, giving little time for course correction and favoring unipolar outcomes.. Source: Ch. 4: The kinetics of an intelligence explosion.
astronomical stakes (importance 4): The outcome of AI development could affect the entire future light cone, with value at stake exceeding all previous human history.. Source: Ch. 14: The strategic picture.
fragility of human values (importance 4): Human values are complex and may be difficult to preserve under strong optimization pressure without precise specification.. Source: (from training memory of book).
slow takeoff scenario (importance 3): Intelligence explosion occurring over decades, allowing more time for adaptation and favoring multipolar outcomes.. Source: Ch. 4: The kinetics of an intelligence explosion.
common good principle (importance 3): Superintelligence should be developed only for the benefit of all of humanity and in the service of widely shared ethical ideals.. Source: Ch. 14: The strategic picture.
oracle-genie insufficiency (importance 3): Even limited AI castes like oracles and genies face fundamental control challenges and cannot be assumed safe.. Source: Ch. 10: Oracles, genies, sovereigns, tools.
Methods
whole brain emulation (WBE) (importance 4): Scanning a biological brain in detail and replicating its computational structure in software, potentially leading to speed superintelligence.. Source: Ch. 2: Paths to superintelligence.
capability control methods (importance 4): Approaches to limit what a superintelligence can do, including boxing, incentive methods, and stunting.. Source: Ch. 9: The control problem.
motivation selection methods (importance 4): Approaches to shape what a superintelligence wants to do, including direct specification, domesticity, and indirect normativity.. Source: Ch. 9: The control problem.
indirect normativity (importance 4): Rather than specifying values directly, specifying a process for learning or deriving the correct values.. Source: Ch. 9: The control problem.
coherent extrapolated volition (CEV) (importance 4): A proposal to construct an AI that does what humanity would want if we knew more, thought faster, were more the people we wished we were, and had grown up farther together.. Source: Ch. 12: Acquiring values.
value learning (importance 4): Having an AI infer human values from behavior, stated preferences, or other evidence rather than specifying them directly.. Source: Ch. 12: Acquiring values.
AI boxing (importance 3): Confining an AI to a restricted environment with limited interaction channels to the outside world.. Source: Ch. 9: The control problem.
direct specification (importance 3): Explicitly programming the AI's final goals and values through manual coding.. Source: Ch. 9: The control problem.
domesticity (importance 3): Giving an AI limited, humble goals such as answering questions accurately or fulfilling specific tasks without broader ambition.. Source: Ch. 9: The control problem.
moral rightness (MR) (importance 3): Programming an AI to do what is morally right, with the expectation that it will figure out what that is.. Source: Ch. 12: Acquiring values.
reinforcement learning path to SI (importance 3): Developing superintelligence through reinforcement learning systems that optimize reward signals.. Source: Ch. 2: Paths to superintelligence.
collaboration mechanisms (importance 3): Institutional arrangements to enable cooperation between AI projects on safety and prevent destructive competition.. Source: Ch. 14: The strategic picture.
inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) (importance 3): Learning reward functions from observed behavior, a potential method for value learning.. Source: Ch. 12: Acquiring values.
moral permissibility (MP) (importance 2): Programming an AI to only take actions that are morally permissible, a weaker constraint than moral rightness.. Source: Ch. 12: Acquiring values.
biological cognition enhancement (importance 2): Genetic selection, embryo selection, or genetic engineering to enhance human biological intelligence.. Source: Ch. 2: Paths to superintelligence.
brain-computer interfaces (importance 2): Augmenting biological cognition through direct neural interfaces with computational systems.. Source: Ch. 2: Paths to superintelligence.
networks and organizations path (importance 2): Improving the functioning of networks and organizations to achieve collective superintelligence.. Source: Ch. 2: Paths to superintelligence.
emulation modulation (importance 2): Modifying whole brain emulations to remove dangerous motivations or enhance cooperation.. Source: (from training memory of book).
tripwire mechanisms (importance 2): Designed tests or situations that would reveal if an AI is concealing its capabilities or intentions.. Source: Ch. 9: The control problem.
interruptibility (importance 2): Designing agents that can be safely interrupted without learning to prevent or manipulate interruptions.. Source: (from training memory of book).
capability distillation (importance 2): Extracting safe subsets of capabilities from a more capable but potentially dangerous system.. Source: (from training memory of book).
compute governance (importance 2): Regulating access to computational resources as a lever for AI development control.. Source: (from training memory of book).
red teams (importance 2): Adversarial testing teams that attempt to find failures in AI safety measures.. Source: (from training memory of book).
prediction markets for AI progress (importance 1): Using prediction markets to better estimate AI development timelines and risks.. Source: (from training memory of book).
Entities
Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) (importance 2): Research organization focused on AI safety, founded by Eliezer Yudkowsky.. Source: (from training memory of book).
Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) (importance 2): Oxford research institute founded by Bostrom studying existential risk, including AI risk.. Source: (from training memory of book).
Eliezer Yudkowsky (importance 2): AI safety researcher who developed early frameworks including coherent extrapolated volition.. Source: (from training memory of book).
I. J. Good (importance 2): Mathematician who in 1965 described the intelligence explosion concept.. Source: Ch. 1: Past developments and present capabilities.